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The New Psychological Benchmark: Bitcoin's Stability Above $100K

Bitcoin's New Normal

Bitcoin has maintained its value above $100,000 for 11 consecutive days, following a significant surge from approximately $75,000 in early April. This stability could indicate that the market is adjusting to the six-figure price point, making it the new psychological benchmark for Bitcoin.

Initially, when Bitcoin first reached $100,000, many investors might have considered it overpriced and hesitated to buy or even sold their holdings. However, as Bitcoin continues to trade at this level, it becomes more normalized in the minds of investors, potentially leading to increased buying activity across various Bitcoin-related products.

Institutional Confidence Boost

Confidence in Bitcoin received a significant boost when Strategy, the largest publicly traded Bitcoin holding firm, announced the purchase of 7,630 BTC at an average price exceeding $103,000. This aggressive buying strategy aims to establish $100,000 as the new floor for Bitcoin.

Valentin Fournier, lead research analyst at BRN, noted that this move, along with surging Bitcoin ETF inflows, underscores the strength of Bitcoin's current market position. Additionally, the price rise in ether (ETH) appears to be driven more by organic demand rather than institutional flows, suggesting a potential increase in retail activity and a decoupling of performance between Bitcoin and altcoins.

Market Developments

In other significant developments, the market capitalization of Ethena Labs' synthetic stablecoin, USDe, has surged by 35% to $5 billion in just over a week. USDe maintains a soft peg to the U.S. dollar through an automated delta-hedging strategy that shorts Bitcoin and ether perpetual futures to offset price changes.

This rapid increase has led some market observers to draw parallels with the sharp rise in market capitalization seen before Bitcoin and the broader market experienced significant gains in November. At that time, Ethena's ENA token saw a five-fold rally to $1.25. It remains to be seen if history will repeat itself.

Regulatory Progress

The U.S. Senate recently voted in favor of the GENUIS Act, advancing the stablecoin bill to its final stage. Vugar Usi Zade, COO at Bitget, commented that while the bill could significantly boost market confidence and provide much-needed clarity for issuers and investors, it does not fully address offshore stablecoin issuers like Tether, which continue to play a crucial role in global liquidity.

For U.S.-based issuers, compliance will now come with higher costs, likely accelerating market consolidation and favoring well-resourced players who can meet the new thresholds.

Traditional Markets

In traditional markets, yields on longer-duration bonds have continued to rise across advanced economies, signaling growing concerns about fiscal debt sustainability. The 30-year Japanese government bond yield hit a record high above 3%. Investors should stay alert to these developments.

What to Watch

Crypto Events

  • May 22: Bitcoin Pizza Day.
  • May 22: Top 220 TRUMP token holders will attend a gala dinner hosted by President Trump at the Trump National Golf Club in Washington.
  • May 30: The second round of FTX repayments begins.

Macro Events

  • Day 1 of 3: Canadian Finance Minister François-Philippe Champagne and Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem will co-host the three-day meeting of G7 finance ministers and central bank governors in Banff, Alberta.
  • May 20, 8:30 a.m.: Statistics Canada releases April consumer price inflation data.
  • May 21, 2 a.m.: The U.K.'s Office for National Statistics releases April consumer price inflation data.
  • May 21, 8 a.m.: Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography releases retail sales data.

Earnings

  • May 20: Canaan (CAN), pre-market.
  • May 28: NVIDIA (NVDA), post-market, $0.88.

Token Events

Governance Votes & Calls

  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on launching “The Watchdog,” a 400,000-ARB bounty program that rewards community sleuths for uncovering misuse of grants, incentives, and service budgets. Voting ends May 23.
  • Arbitrum DAO is voting on a constitutional AIP to upgrade Arbitrum One and Arbitrum Nova to ArbOS 40 “Callisto,” aligning them with Ethereum’s May 7 Pectra upgrade. Voting ends May 29.
  • May 20, 12 p.m.: Lido to host its 28th node operator community call.
  • May 21: Maple Finance has teased an upcoming announcement on the future of asset management.
  • May 21, 6 p.m.: Theta Network to host an Ask Me Anything session in a livestream.
  • May 22: Official Trump to announce its “next Era” at the day of the dinner for its largest holders.

Unlocks

  • May 31: Optimism (OP) to unlock 1.89% of its circulating supply worth $22.28 million.
  • June 1: Sui (SUI) to unlock 1.32% of its circulating supply worth $169.82 million.
  • June 1: ZetaChain (ZETA) to unlock 5.34% of its circulating supply worth $11.24 million.
  • June 12: Ethena (ENA) to unlock 0.7% of its circulating supply worth $15.16 million.
  • June 12: Aptos (APT) to unlock 1.79% of its circulating supply worth $58.02 million.

Token Launches

  • May 20: Deadline for users to claim their Xterio (XTER) airdrop on Binance Alpha.
  • June 1: Staking rewards for staking ERC-20 OM on MANTRA Finance end.
  • June 16: Advised deadline to unstake stMATIC as part of Lido on Polygon’s sunsetting process ends.

Conferences

  • Day 2 of 7: Dutch Blockchain Week (Amsterdam).
  • Day 1 of 3: Avalanche Summit London.
  • Day 1 of 3: Seamless Middle East Fintech 2025 (Dubai).
  • May 21-22: Crypto Expo Dubai.
  • May 21-22: Cryptoverse Conference (Warsaw).
  • May 27-29: Bitcoin 2025 (Las Vegas).
  • May 27-30: Web Summit Vancouver.
  • May 29: Stablecon (New York).
  • May 29-30: Litecoin Summit 2025 (Las Vegas).
  • May 29-June 1: Balkans Crypto 2025 (Tirana, Albania).
  • June 2-7: SXSW London.

Token Talk

By Shaurya Malwa

  • TokenFi is facilitating the first-ever tokenization of a consumer AI robot, the Floki Minibot M1, providing the platform with a unique real-world use and a strong narrative in the increasingly crowded market for RWA applications.
  • The Floki Minibot M1 presale and tokenization go live on May 23, the same day TokenFi debuts its RWA tokenization module, aligning a high-profile product drop with core platform functionality—a powerful driver for platform visibility and utility for TokenFi's TOKEN.
  • TokenFi’s association with Rice Robotics, which works with companies like Nvidia, Softbank, and 7-Eleven Japan, lends legitimacy to the project’s RWA ambitions and strengthens long-term investor confidence in TOKEN, which sits at a $60 million market capitalization as of Tuesday.
  • TokenFi will benefit from an upcoming RICE token airdrop to Floki and TokenFi holders, offering direct value accrual and potentially incentivizing new buyers and stakers of TOKEN in anticipation of eligibility.
  • The TokenFi team announced on Monday that it would be the title sponsor of the West Indies cricket team's tour of Ireland 2025, bringing its brand to viewers globally through broadcast partners like TNT Sports, Supersport, and Fancode, giving the token a visibility boost among retail audiences.

Derivatives Positioning

  • Bitcoin CME futures open interest has risen to the highest in three months, signaling a renewed uptick in institutional activity. ETH's open interest has jumped to its highest since March.
  • Positioning in both markets remains light compared with December.
  • On offshore exchanges, perpetual funding rates for major coins remain below an annualized 10%, indicating that while traders are using leverage to take bullish bets, the market is far from being frothy.
  • On Deribit, BTC and ETH calls continue to trade pricier than puts across timeframes, indicating a bullish bias.
  • Block flows on Paradigm have been mixed, with calendar spreads both bought and sold.

Market Movements

  • BTC is down 0.51% from 4 p.m. ET Monday at $105,181.50 (24hrs: +2.12%).
  • ETH is unchanged at $2,519.42 (24hrs: +4.46%).
  • CoinDesk 20 is down 0.42% at 3,171.22 (24hrs: +2.84%).
  • Ether CESR Composite Staking Rate is up 13 bps at 3.04%.
  • BTC funding rate is at 0.0074% (8.1227% annualized) on Binance.

Bitcoin Stats

  • BTC Dominance: 63.86 (-0.04%).
  • Ethereum to Bitcoin ratio: 0.02401 (0.29%).
  • Hashrate (seven-day moving average): 853 EH/s.
  • Hashprice (spot): $54.3.
  • Total Fees: 6.87 BTC / $717,919.
  • CME Futures Open Interest: 157,875 BTC.
  • BTC priced in gold: 32.4 oz.
  • BTC vs gold market cap: 9.17%.

Technical Analysis

The chart shows the XMR/BTC ratio has broken above the swing high resistance from September 2024, confirming a bullish trend reversal higher. The pattern points to continued Monero (XMR) outperformance relative to Bitcoin.

Crypto Equities

  • Strategy (MSTR): closed on Monday at $413.42 (+3.41%), up 0.4% at $415.06 in pre-market.
  • Coinbase Global (COIN): closed at $263.99 (-0.93%), up 1.11% at $266.93.
  • Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY): closed at C$31.49 (+3.01%).
  • MARA Holdings (MARA): closed at $16.32 (+0.68%), up 0.49% at $16.40.
  • Riot Platforms (RIOT): closed at $8.97 (-1.97%), up 0.88% at $9.04.
  • Core Scientific (CORZ): closed at $10.85 (+0.65%), up 0.55% at $10.91.
  • CleanSpark (CLSK): closed at $9.84 (+0.61%), up 0.51% at $9.89.
  • CoinShares Valkyrie Bitcoin Miners ETF (WGMI): closed at $18.13 (+0.72%).
  • Semler Scientific (SMLR): closed at $43.27 (+5.85%), up 4% at $45.
  • Exodus Movement (EXOD): closed at $33.91 (-4.21%), up 3.21% at $35.

ETF Flows

Spot BTC ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $667.4 million.
  • Cumulative net flows: $42.41 billion.
  • Total BTC holdings: ~1.19 million.

Spot ETH ETFs

  • Daily net flow: $13.7 million.
  • Cumulative net flows: $2.54 billion.
  • Total ETH holdings: ~3.47 million.

Source: Farside Investors

Conclusion

Bitcoin's stability above $100,000 is cementing a new psychological floor, signaling a potential shift in market dynamics. Institutional confidence, regulatory progress, and market developments all contribute to a bullish outlook for Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market. As the market continues to evolve, investors should stay informed and vigilant to capitalize on emerging opportunities.